The first round is in the books (as is Game 1 of the second round for both Boston/Miami and OKC/Memphis) and we're on to the Conference Semifinals.
In my playoff power rankings I touched on a few things that proved to be correct, and a few things I narrowly missed on. The Hornets did need Chris Paul to play other-wordly to beat the Lakers, and for two games he was just that. Unfortunately, they couldn't expect him to do that for the whole series and Los Angeles survived an ugly 1st round series. I also mentioned that everyone was loving Portland but I still had a feeling Dallas might have one more run in the tank...and it looks like they do. On the other hand I gave Indiana no chance to win a game against Chicago and they took two! Chicago doesn't look nearly as scary when Rose is shooting poorly. I also misread the ORL/ATL series in round one, despite the fact that my gut told me Orlando was really bad. I still don't believe in Atlanta much, but hopefully they can make the series with Chicago entertaining.
And with that...let's get into some series previews.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Chicago Bulls vs. 5. Atlanta Hawks
Indiana did exactly what any team should try and do against the Bulls - which is to try and contain Rose to long jumpers and trap him off of pick and rolls. They had some success, although Rose ultimately was too much to handle with his athleticism. Let's get this out there right now - you can't keep him away from the rim for a whole game unless he decides to do so. He isn't a high percentage shooter, and certainly wasn't shooting well against Indiana, but he still gets his points on layups, dunks and free throws when he's not going well. Keeping him out of the paint and off the line will be paramount to Atlanta's success. The Hawks will also want to keep a long arm in the face of Kyle Korver who was a big shot factory in round one. I normally hate on Korver pretty hard but he was big in round one, when no other Bulls were really stepping up.
Carlos Boozer can sometimes struggle against lengthy defenders like Horford and Pachulia, so it will be key for Noah to have a big series on both ends.
Bulls win if...Rose is Rose and scores and distributes. (I know sounds simple, but I really think that is all they need.)
Hawks win if...Rose continues poor shooting, or gets banged up and Joe Johnson starts earning some of that contract he got.
PREDICTION - Bulls in 5.
2. Miami Heat vs. 3. Boston Celtics
Game one is already in the books, and we know what happened there. Pierce came unraveled and Wade had a tremendous game as Miami jumped to an early big lead and never looked back.
Three things concern me about the first game for the Celtics.
1) Rondo lacked the aggression he showed through most of the NYK series. (Although to be fair, he was in foul trouble)
2) Jermaine O'Neal was nowhere to be found. (He was huge against Knicks and needs to be in this series. He should be tearing up Joel Anthony on both ends)
3) Lack of effort. All game long it looked like they were reaching for loose balls and grasping as Heat players as they got burned on D, instead of moving their feet and getting after it. After a long break they shouldn't come out like that - and you know Doc was on 'em about it. I don't expect that to last, but it needs to change fast.
Van Gundy and company made a salient point yesterday in that Miami has the most athletic perimeter in the league and the extra pass (something Boston usually does quite well) will be key in this series. And on defense they really need to stay home on James Jones and Mike Miller and get their rotations tighter.
Look for Miami to exploit their athleticism all series long and the drive and dish for three should be their main weapon of choice.
Miami wins if...Rondo can't destroy MIA PGs and Wade and James display great cohesion.
Boston wins if...They use their veteran presence to get under skin on Miami role players - and King James for that matter. (NOT reacting like Pierce did yesterday.)
PREDICTION - Boston in 7.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
2. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 3. Dallas Mavericks
Hard to believe but this is the first time in the "Dirk/Kobe" era that these two have met in the playoffs. It should be a great series both on and off the court, as I can't wait to see some Mark Cuban shenanigans and hopefully some firing back and forth between he and Zen Master Phil.
As I think about this series, I'm not really sure what to make of it. Part of me wants to think Dallas has a real shot - especially with the Lakers recent play and Kobe maybe a bit banged up and certainly getting long in the tooth. However, I just think LA has been doing this too long, and ultimately Kobe, Gasol, Odom and Bynum will be too much for Dirk and company. However, if Jason Kidd can exploit the PG position somewhat like Chris Paul - obviously in a much less dynamic fashion - and Jason Terry can shake loose for his patented big shots they might be able to pull it off. I think stealing a game 1 in LA would be a huge boost to the effort.
Los Angeles wins if... Gasol comes out of his hole and starts resembling the player that we saw in last year's playoffs and they dominate the glass.
Dallas wins if... Dirk plays huge all series and Chandler can make Gasol into a jelly donut like New Orleans did.
PREDICTION - Los Angeles in 6.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8. Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis took game one on the road in convincing fashion yesterday. It might be time to start believing in Memphis. They basically tore up a dilapidated San Antonio team, and have now taken the home court from Oklahoma City - who many saw as the best team in the West. Zach "Zebo" Randolph has been huge in these playoffs and the Grizzlies actually have a very 'OKC up-and-comer' type of feel about them. They are a fairly young team with nothing to lose and playing with a certain swagger. It also seems that Pau had his mojo stolen by his little brother, Marc Gasol who is playing as well as Pau is playing poorly.
On the other hand, if OKC can avoid panicking and another me-against-the-world type of game from Russell Westbrook they should still pull this series out.
Oklahoma City wins if... Durant gets off and Westbrook reverts back to his "Robin" ways and quits trying to play "Batman". (That's Durant's job)
Memphis wins if... Zebo keeps playing well and Durant gets shutdown by Tony Allen and the Grizzlie perimeter defenders.
PREDICTION - Oklahoma City in 7
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